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ABCProposal-Nov282001.pdf
Project Proposal
Project Asian Brown Cloud
Air Pollution in the Indo-Asia-Pacific Region:
Impact on Climate and the Environment
Integration of Science, Impact Assessment, Policymaking and
Regional Capacity Building
V. Ramanathan and P.J. Crutzen
Center for
Clouds,
Chemistry &
Climate
November 2001
Please do NOT Cite or Distribute
P r o j e c t As i a n Br o w n Cl o u d
Air Pollution in the Indo-Asia-Pacific Region: Impact on Climate and the Environment
Integration of Science, Impact Assessment, Policymaking and Regional Capacity Building
V. Ramanathan and P.J. Crutzen
Coordinator: H.V. Nguyen
Aerosols
Climate
Water
Atmospheric
Chemistry
Policy
Forum
• International Protocols
• Regional Transboundary Transport:
Malé Declaration
• Regional Environmental Assessment
and Mitigation
• Policymaking and Scientific Forum
(emissions, land use and public health)
• Integration of Similar Programs
Policy and
Regional
Network
Capacity
Building
• Improvement in regional
capacity to monitor
and predict
• Opportunities for regional
students and scientists in
all disciplines
• Scientific exchanges between
Asia, US and Europe
Regional
Resources
• Asian Climate Modeling Center
• Regional Training and
Calibration Center
• Integration Data Center on Climate,
Agriculture and Public Health
• Regional Climate - Ecology
Systemic Response Model
Table of Contents
Executive Summary ................................................................................ 1
Background ............................................................................................... 3
Project Asian Brown Cloud (ABC):
Intersecting Climate Issues with Ecosystem Response ................. 6
The ABC Climate Observation Program ............................................ 8
The ABC Modeling Program ............................................................. 11
The ABC Impact Assessment Program ............................................... 12
Climate Impact ..................................................................... 12
Agriculture Impact ................................................................ 13
Public Health Impact ............................................................ 15
Economic Impacts and Policy Implications ........................... 16
References .................................................................................................. 18
Attachments
Potential Collaborating Institutions ................................................... 19
Proposed Timelines and Estimated Budget ......................................... 20
The Indian Ocean Experiment ........................................................... 22
Executive Summary
Project Asian Brown Cloud’s (ABC) fundamental and ambitious goal is to avert further major environmental
degradation and enable environmentally sustainable development in the Asia-Pacific region whose population
is expected to reach 5 thousand million in the coming decades.
About 60% of the world’s population of 6 thousand million live in Asia. Environmental consequences of
the area’s impressive economic development can be far reaching, especially with respect to air pollution at
local and regional levels. Already, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) has identified air
pollution in the Asia-Pacific region as a major challenge for the 21st century (UNEP, 1999).
A recent international study, the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX), documented the vast extent of the
so-called Asian haze, a 3 km thick brownish pollution layer of pollutants hovering over most of the tropical
Indian Ocean, South, Southeast and East Asia. The haze particles consist of sulfates, nitrates, organics,
black carbon and fly ash amongst several other pollutants, which can be transported far beyond their source
region, particularly during the dry season. Potential direct and indirect consequences of the haze involve
regional and global climate, the water cycle, agriculture and human health, and include:
• Direct effects: Significant reduction in the solar radiation reaching the surface; a 50 to 100% increase
in solar heating of the lower atmosphere; rainfall suppression; agricultural productivity decline; and
adverse human health effects.
• Potential indirect effects. Cooling of the land surface; increase in frequency and strength of thermal
inversions that trap more pollution; evaporation reduction; soil drying; and disruption of the monsoon
rainfall patterns.
6
Population Growth
2030
5
4
2000
3
1975
2
1950
1
0
Rest of the WORLD
ASIA
Source: World Population Prospects:
The 2000 Revision; United Nations New York.
(million metric tons per year)
Population (thousand million)
In spite of the advances by INDOEX, significant scientific uncertainties remain. We do not know the regional
scale of the pollution layer, thus high quality data on the haze and the precursor pollutants are urgently needed to
assess the long term trends. We also do not know the answers to basic questions such as: How does the solar
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
SO2 Emissions
1990
Europe
2000
2010
2020
United States and Canada
Asia
Source: Global Environmental Trends, World Resources Institute,
http://www.wri.org/wri/, R. Downing, R. Ramankutty, and J. Shah,
RAINS-ASIA: An Assessment Model for Acid Deposition in Asia
(The World Bank, Washington, D.C. 1997, p. 11).
Project ABC - Page 1
heating in the haze affect the monsoon rainfall? How does the reduction of solar energy to the surface affect the
water budget and soil moisture? Does the haze amplify or ameliorate the warming due to greenhouse gases?
How does air pollution from Asia affect the worldwide concentrations of ozone and other pollutants? On the
policy side, the evidence of long range transport of the haze complicates potential prescriptions for dealing with
the problem, as responses must be coordinated among sovereign nations.
Project ABC articulates a strategy to understand air pollution in a broad context and to help policymakers
arrive at informed decisions. We build on the strengths of the international, multi-disciplinary INDOEX
science team of over 200 scientists and on our experience working with UNEP and other international
bodies to translate scientific findings into policy options for action.
Science Strategy. We will research transboundary atmospheric pollution in Asia in two specific ways:
1) Establish an integrated network of surface climate observatories across the entire Asia-Pacific region to
monitor air pollution’s full extent, composition, impacts and transport. Priority will be placed on
strengthening or complementing existing facilities of the East Asia Network (EANET) and the Malé
Declaration sites in South Asia. Combined with satellites, the observatories will track the haze and plumes
on regional scales. 2) Develop an integrated regional modeling approach that combines data assimilation
techniques with predictive models to estimate the impact of air pollution on climate, atmospheric chemistry,
agriculture, the water budget and public health.
Policy Forum. We will use in-situ observations and crop models to assess the effects of the haze, ozone and
greenhouse gases on the water budget and agricultural productivity. We will also initiate epidemiological
studies to assess the health impacts and the global climate impacts of the haze. Through UNEP, we will
invite environmental economists to explore various policy options for the region.
Chemical composition of the INDOEX haze.
Average mass (M) composition of fine aerosol on KCO
(Maldives) as a function of the logarithm of the particle
diameter (D) in February 1999. The residual includes
mineral dust, fly ash, and unknown compounds (Lelieveld
et al., 2001). The chemical composition of aerosols can
impact public health.
Page 2 - Project ABC
Aerosol contribution of the optical depth. Shows the
relative contribution of the various chemical species to
the aerosol optical properties, or ability to block sunlight,
at visible wavelengths (Ramanathan et al., 2001).
Aerosol optical properties of the haze could potentially
negatively impact agriculture.
Capacity Building and Regional Resources: We propose to advance the science and facilitate technology transfer
through a) better observations, b) modeling using data collected with transfer to Asia within the project
period, and c) a virtual school that will provide classes utilizing real-time video conference facilities. The
climate observatories will also be critical components of this school by serving as regional education and
training facilities for students, post-doctoral researchers and scientists. The Center for Clouds, Chemistry
and Climate (C4), a US National Science Foundation Science and Technology Center at the Scripps
Institution of Oceanography (SIO) at the University of California at San Diego (UCSD), will collaborate
with UNEP and other international organizations, such as SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training
(START), to conduct this education outreach program.
Background
1. The Indian Ocean Experiment
Since 1995, scientists have been collecting data over the Indian Ocean as part of INDOEX. Led by C4,
INDOEX field experiments culminated in an Intensive Field Phase during January to April of 1999 with
participation of over 200 scientists from about 60 institutions in 13 countries in Asia, Europe and the USA.
In collaboration with the government of the Maldives, C4 operated a surface observatory in the country to
detect the long range transport of atmospheric pollution. For more information, see Attachment 3 INDOEX Brochure, and visit the project’s website <www-indoex.ucsd.edu>.
INDOEX results show widespread pollution over large sections of the region. In Spring 1999, scientists
were surprised to find a dense brownish pollution haze layer about the size of the continental US over the
Indian Ocean, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, and later through satellites, over China. INDOEX results
indicate pollutants scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thus reduce up to 10% of the solar energy
reaching the ocean and 10 to 20% over land surfaces. These findings have raised serious questions concerning
the impact of atmospheric pollution of that magnitude on health, the regional monsoon hydrological cycle and
wind systems, marine life, and especially the plant ecosystem and agriculture, which depend on sunlight for
photosynthesis. If such a haze layer regularly covers agricultural areas, optimal crop yields could be reduced.
More than half of the world’s population is concentrated in the Asia-Pacific region, thus the effects of atmospheric
pollution could be very large.
The long range transport of the haze was an important finding. For example, the persistent haze over the
Bay of Bengal was traced to emissions from South and Southeast Asian countries. Cooperation across
international boundaries is required for understanding the environmental impacts of the haze and for
effective mitigation measures. In order to make this happen, we are proposing a synergistic cooperation
and collaboration between the INDOEX scientists and UNEP, particularly UNEP RRC.AP.
The INDOEX group is entering the next phase of examining the impacts of this haze on the regional
climate, monsoon, water cycle, agriculture and health. In parallel with this activity, the INDOEX group
recognizes the scientific need and importance of dealing with the entire Asia-Pacific region (instead of only
India and the tropical Indian Ocean) and has started to take steps to broaden the scope of its activity.
Interaction with a regional body such as UNEP RRC.AP would significantly enhance the development of
this next phase as well as provide a crucial link to the policy arena.
Project ABC - Page 3
2. Malé Declaration on Control and Prevention of Air Pollution and Its Likely Transboundary Effects
for South Asia
The UNEP RRC.AP, through its recent success in articulating the Malé Declaration is entering the stage of
strengthening the monitoring network. We thus envision great possibilities for constructive interaction
between science and policymaking at the working level, for the better management of the environment,
and for ensuring the sustainability of the economic development of the region without a serious threat of
environmental degradation. With accelerating urbanization and a high population growth rate, megacity
air pollution is assured to become a major problem of the future in the Asia-Pacific region.
We excerpt the background information provided in the Malé Declaration (April 22, 1998), for it also
provides an excellent background for this proposed activity:
“Air pollution is an emerging environmental issue in Asia. In particular, emissions of sulfur dioxide and
nitrogen oxides have been rising steadily over the past few decades. Rapid growth of cities, together with
expansion of industry and transport systems, has made the Asian region increasingly concerned with these
emissions. Projections indicate that potentially large increases in emissions may occur during the next
twenty to fifty years if the current trend persists. If this occurs, the impact which has been experienced in
Europe will become apparent in large parts of Asia. These problems include reduction in crop yield by
direct effects of gases; acidification of lakes; impacts on human health; impacts of corrosion on humanmade structures, impact on soil fertility leading to damaging changes in natural ecosystems; and impacts
on forest and crop growth in sensitive soils.” Visit <www.rrcap.unep.org/issues/air/maledec> for more
information.
In fact, while the Malé Declaration only mentions urban and industrial pollution, the situation in Asia , and
the other developing parts of the world as well, is even worse since rural biomass burning is another major
source of pollution. We note that industrial pollution is mainly of urban origin while biomass burning is
mainly of rural origin. It should also be noted that air pollution in or near cities would be much larger with
contributions both from biomass burning and fossil fuel combustion. Likewise, policymakers in this
declaration did not include the regional and global impact on climate, including most importantly, rainfall
disturbances.
3. UNEP RRC.AP’s Approach
After consultations and study of the European and American experiences in coping with atmospheric
pollution, the UNEP RRC.AP is following a three-stage approach to promote the policy cycle in the
region. The program includes i) raise awareness amongst the policymakers and scientific community;
ii) build a regional capacity for a network monitoring mechanism to collect and analyze data; and iii) take
measures to reduce emissions through strongly improved energy use efficiency and economic and/or legal
instruments. In South Asia, the adoption of the Malé Declaration was facilitated using this approach.
In Southeast Asia, UNEP is providing support to the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN)
secretariat in formulating a legal instrument to control the haze pollution in the region. Currently, the
activities are directed towards formulating some legally binding agreements to deal with the transboundary
air pollution, especially the haze pollution.
UNEP RRC.AP has been participating in the Acid Deposition Monitoring Network in East Asia (EANET)
since its initial stages. EANET has designated UNEP RRC.AP as secretariat for the network starting 2002.
Page 4 - Project ABC
South Asian Haze: SeaWiFs Image, March 21, 1999
Source: ORBIMAGE
The Asian Haze. Satellite image on March 21, 1999 of the Asian haze during the Intensive Field Phase of INDOEX
(Source: ORBIMAGE). Using observational data and aerosol model output, INDOEX scientists have recreated a composite
image of the haze, as depicted in the next picture.
The Asian Haze
INDOEX Data for Jan-Mar 1999
Highly polluted
Polluted
Pristine
The regional map of aerosol column amount. The optical depth values over the ocean are retrieved from satellite
data and over the land are estimated using a computer model (Ramanathan et al., 2001).
Project ABC - Page 5
Project Asian Brown Cloud (ABC):
Intersecting Climate Issues with Ecosystem Response
1. The New Concept
A more complete picture of the roles and
interactions of greenhouse gases, aerosols
and ozone is urgently needed. Problems
such as haze, smog, and acid deposition
fall under the general category of air
pollution. The aerosols and high level of
ozone that result from rural and urban air
pollution are part of the global warming
issue since they could induce climate
change by altering the radiative balance
of the planet. Their presence can also have
ecosystem impacts, notably on agriculture
and public health. Thus, there is a need
to assess the impacts under one common
framework, which is the goal of the
proposed strategy for Project ABC.
It is now undisputed that primary air
pollutants and their chemical products
could be transported over distances of
many thousands of kilometers. Emissions
in one country can cause damage in other
countries through transboundary and
even transcontinental transport. This
transport of pollutants converts local
issues into regional and global concerns. Thus this issue cannot be addressed by individual national efforts
alone. Past experience has demonstrated that the most effective way of tackling air pollution is through
international cooperation which is the essence of this proposed strategy. We should consider the effects on
global as well as regional scales with emphasis on the following:
Impacts on the Regional and Global Physical Climate System
• both by direct back-scattering and absorption, the haze causes reduction of the solar radiation reaching
the surface by more than 10% above large areas and adds significant heating to the atmosphere
• the resulting alterations of spatial gradients of atmospheric temperatures can shift the monsoon precipitation
systems, drying out the northern and northwest sector of South Asia while increasing rainfall over the oceans
Impacts on Regional Watercycle and Agriculture
In turn, the haze could have potential impacts on agriculture by
• impeding plant growth and vitality due to ozone and deposition of pollutants
• reducing surface irradiance available for photosynthesis
• altering the regional winter monsoon hydrological cycle
Page 6 - Project ABC
Given the rapid increase in population with associated increased demands on wheat, rice and other cereals in South Asia,
drastic changes in pollution control and land use are required in the near future to assure ample food supplies and limited
environmental degradation due to air pollutions.
Impacts on Human Health
The health effects of outdoor air pollution have now been a topic of investigation for nearly half a century, with
much of the original motivation for this research coming from the well-chronicled air pollution disasters - Donora,
Pennsylvania 1948 and the London fog of 1952, for example. The resulting body of evidence from research
application of toxicology, epidemiology, and exposure assessment is voluminous. It documents a wide array of
adverse health effects of air pollution that extend from reduced well-being and increased symptoms of chronic
diseases, and even premature death. Air pollution typically exists as a complex mixture, reflecting the multiplicity
of sources and the many pollutants released by combustion processes, the principal source of pollutants generated
by man’s activities. Key components of combustion-related air pollution mixtures include particles, emitted as
primary particles or formed secondarily from gaseous species, sulfur oxides (SOx), nitrogen oxides (NOx), carbon
monoxide (CO), and numerous organic chemicals, including carcinogens, e.g., benzo(a)pyrene, and irritants,
e.g., formaldehyde. In many urban areas of the world, pollution, especially the formation of ozone, is the result
of photochemically-driven reactions involving hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides emitted by vehicles and industry
(Project ABC Assessment Report). In rural Asia, biomass burning is also a main contributor to emissions and
degradation of air quality. Project ABC proposes to be one of the first systemic attempts to link a regional climatic
phenomenon (pollution haze) to public health.
2. Intrinsic Synergy and Strategic Collaboration with UNEP
Scientific endeavors initiated by INDOEX have already produced a valuable scientific base for studying pollution
impacts in the region. Since regional scientists are strongly involved in INDOEX, continuation of this initiative
in close partnership with UNEP will further strengthen scientific knowledge as well as capacity building in
the region. Scientific findings and developments need to be properly disseminated for policymakers to
ensure informed decision-making. Currently, the communication gap between policymaking processes
and scientific developments are wider in Asia than in Europe or North America. The development of the
Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution in Europe and the Malé Declaration are excellent
examples of scientifically supported policy developments, which is also the essence of our proposed strategy.
Strategic partnership between INDOEX and UNEP would create unprecedented synergy. It is recognized
that UNEP has established a network of policymakers and experts in the field of air pollution in the region,
thus it could play a major role in disseminating scientific findings, such as those from INDOEX, bridging
the gap between science and the policymaking process.
3. Project ABC Conceptual Design
The underlying principles of Porject ABC include facilitating interaction between scientific and policymaking
processes to promote regionally sustainable development and capacity building.
A comprehensive program will be developed and implemented for understanding the nature and scope of
environmental issues facing Asia-Pacific, and develop a framework for assessing past and future impacts.
This program will include integration of satellite data with regional surface data, global atmospheric chemistry
and climate models in correlation with critical data from public health, agriculture, and marine and terrestrial
ecology. Specifically, in the area of capacity building, it will include field experiments to facilitate active
collaboration with regional scientists and practical training for regional students and post graduates.
Project ABC - Page 7
The ABC Climate Observation Program
• Surface Observatories: Sentinels for Asia-Pacific on the Regional and Transboundary Atmospheric Pollution
Project ABC will establish an integrated network of surface climate observatories across the entire AsiaPacific region. These strategically placed observatories will monitor the full extent, chemical composition,
radiative effects and transport of transboundary atmospheric pollution. Because these surface sites will
track the transport of pollution haze and plumes on a regional scale, synergistically, they will be key
components of the implementation phase of the Malé Declaration and EANET. They will also provide
critical information from a data sparse region of the world for calibration of satellite observations and
baseline measurements for long-term analysis of changes in regional pollutant gases and aerosol characteristics.
The network of stations, furthermore, will enhance regional capacity building.
Project ABC will establish 7 new regional air-quality and climate observatories at critical locations and
contribute to 3 existing sites (see map) along the periphery and within the Asia-Pacific. Each surface
observatory will be equipped with radiation, aerosol and chemistry instruments (Table 1). Locations of the
new sites are preliminary and subject to change based on future studies, including trajectory analysis and
site surveys. We will strive to include existing sites of the Malé Declaration and the EANET to promote
international synergy in terms of ease of maintenance, training and technology transfer.
Eventually, pending feasibility and funding availability, we plan to operate all the sites with renewable
power (wind and solar), only using electricity generated from fossil fuels as backup.
Short-Term: Marking the Four Corners of the Asia-Pacific
At a minimum, we will need the following four observatories initially to identify the extent of the AsiaPacific plume.
1. Hanimaadhoo Island, Republic of Maldives.
The Maldives are sufficiently far from India and Sri Lanka to be truly representative of the remote marine
environment of the northern Indian Ocean, yet they are strongly influenced by the northeast monsoon.
The Hanimaadhoo Climate Observatory (HCO), 6.466°N, 73.110°E, is critical because it is the only
observatory in the world which can measure two distinct types of air due to the monsoons: pristine air
from the southern hemisphere during the southwest or wet monsoon, and polluted continental air from
India, Indo-China and other regions of Southeast Asia during the northeast or dry monsoon. HCO will
also document the transitional periods between the monsoons. Moreover, sampling southern pristine air
will provide true background measurements for the region as well as the world. Sampling polluted air will
support continued study of the influence of pollutants on the chemical composition and radiative properties
of aerosols and clouds. Proof-of-concept for HCO was successfully carried out during 1998-1999 in
INDOEX with the Kaashidhoo Climate Observatory (KCO) on Kaashidhoo Island which is about 160 km
south of Hanimaadhoo.
2. Bidur, Nepal.
UNEP supports the development of a station in Nepal, tentatively in Bidur, to observe the haze pushing
against the Himalayan mountains. It will also help monitor long range transboundary pollution from Europe.
3. Kosan Station, Cheju Island, Korea. Because the Kosan observatory (33.28°N, 126.17°E) already exists
(it was used during ACE-Asia 2001), time until operation should be brief. This station, optimally located
in the outflow of China, will help monitor the regional extent of the haze and desert and continental dust.
Page 8 - Project ABC
4. Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii.
We envision that the existing site at the Mauna Loa Observatory (155.58°W, 19.54°N) would become an
important source of data for Project ABC, possibly complemented by additional instrumenation. This
station will monitor the trans-Pacific transport of the Asian pollution plume.
5. We will also explore collaboration with Taiwan and Japan for their existing facilities and/or measurements.
6. In addition, another observatory will be established at La Jolla, California, to track the arrival of the AsiaPacific plume to North America. This station will be established as part of existing long-term research
program for C4, but it will be operated within the Project ABC framework to provide scientific synergy in
monitoring the global transport of pollution.
Long-Term: Encircling the Asia-Pacific Haze
Within the next 5-6 years, additional observatories will be built, tentatively including:
7. Bay of Bengal, to monitor the transport of the haze during the northeast monsoon.
8. and 9. Qinghai Hu and near Beijing, China. A station in the region of Qinghai Hu will facilitate
measurements of desert aerosols, and possibly gauge the import of pollution from Europe. Another station
is also proposed in the Beijing vicinity to monitor biomass burning, and urban and industrial plumes.
10. Malayia / Indonesia, to monitor emissions of recurrent forest fires.
11. Momote Station, Papua New Guinea. Along with the station in Indonesia, the Momote Station
(2.058°S, 147.425°E), operated as a Western Pacific site in the US Department of Energy’s (DOE)
Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program, would provide a comprehensive picture of the path
of pollution from biomass burning and forest fires.
Terra
ERS-2/ENVISAT
SeaWiFS
TRMM
NOAA-14, 15
Proposed Observation Network for Project ABC. Extensive usage of satellite data will be the hallmark of
Project ABC. For the surface system, new surface sites (white squares) and existing sites with additional
ABC instruments (white squares with asterisks) will be established to monitor regional and global transport.
Project ABC - Page 9
Table 1. Instruments at KCO during INDOEX, Spring 1999
• Satellites Observation System
Project ABC will take advantage of AVHRR data
for trend analysis of the pollution haze, MODIS
data on TERRA for classification of clouds,
CERES for validation of the radiative forcing,
SeaWiFS for aerosol global coverage over the
ocean, GOME/SCIAMACHY for regional ozone,
carbon monoxide and other gases, and MOPITT
on TERRA for carbon monoxide.
• AVHRR - Advanced Very High Resolution
Radiometer is onboard National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellite
series. The objective of the AVHRR instrument
is to provide radiance data for investigation of
clouds, land-water boundaries, snow and ice
extent, ice or snow melt inception, day and night
cloud distribution, temperatures of radiating
surfaces, and sea surface temperature.
• MODIS - The Moderate-resolution Imaging
Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is a key instrument
onboard the National Aeronautic and Space
Administration (NASA)’s Terra and Aqua satellites
to monitor aerosols, atmospheric water vapor and
rain water, physical and radiative properties of
clouds, profiles of atmospheric temperature and
moisture, atmospheric stability, and total ozone
burden.
• CERES - The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant
Energy System (CERES) experiment is one of the
highest priority scientific satellite instruments
developed for NASA’s Earth Observation System.
CERES products include both solar-reflected and
Earth-emitted radiation from the top-of-theatmosphere (TOA) to the Earth’s surface. The
instruments measure radiances, TOA and surface
radiation fluxes, rain water, snow/ice, fire, aerosols,
surface temperature, cloud physical and optical
characteristics and liquid/ice water path.
Aerosol and Radiometric Program
C4/SIO/UCSD (V. Ramanathan):
Pyranometer, clear dome, shaded
Pyranometer, clear dome, unshaded
Pyranometer, near IR, shaded + diffuse
Pyranometer, near IR,
unshaded + global
Pyrheliometer, clear + direct
Pyrheliometer, near-IR + direct
Dual-channel spectroradiometer,
direct and global
5-channel GUV-511c,
global and diffuse
Microtop handheld photometer
Meteorological station
(winds, temp., RH and pressure)
Digital camera, whole sky imager
NASA-GSFC (B. Holben):
CIMEL sun photometer
Kaashidhoo Climate Observatory
Univ. Miami, Florida
(J. Prospero, H. Maring and D. Savoie):
Nephelometer, scattering coefficient
Particle Soot Absorption Photometer (PSAP),
extinction coefficient
High Volume Aerosol Impactor, 3 stages <1, 1, >10 µm
Anemometer
Atmospheric Chemistry Program
Univ. Maryland (R. Dickerson):
Surface CO
Surface Ozone
NOAA-CMDL (T. Conway and P. Tans)
Whole Air Sampler
(CO2, CH4, CO, H2, N2O, SF6,
and 13C/12C and 18O/16O of CO2)
NOAA-CMDL (S. Oltmans)
Columnar O3 (sondes)
New instruments may include balloon sounding systems, an aerosol mass
spectrometer, and surface lidar.
This set of instruments deployed at KCO during the Intensive Field Phase
in Spring 1999 enabled the simultaneous measurements of aerosol
characteristics and radiative fluxes reaching the Earth’s surface. Measurement
of solar radiative fluxes at the surface is very important for estimating the
aerosol radiative forcing and hence its effect on climate.
• GOME and SCIAMACHY - The Global Ozone
Monitoring Experiment (GOME) was launched in
1995 onboard the second European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-2). This instrument can measure a range of
atmospheric trace constituents, with the emphasis on global ozone distributions. GOME is a nadir-viewing
spectrometer that measures the solar radiation scattered by the atmosphere in the ultraviolet and visible spectral
region (240 to 790 nm). Although GOME will continue to fly for some time, a substantially enhanced version,
Page 10 - Project ABC
Scanning Imaging Absorption SpectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY), will be launched
next year on ENVISAT by the European Space Agency.
• SeaWiFS - The purpose of the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS) Project is to provide
quantitative data on global ocean bio-optical properties. Subtle changes in ocean color signify various types
and quantities of marine phytoplankton (microscopic marine plants), the knowledge of which has both
scientific and practical applications, such as derived aerosol coverage.
b
a
Satellite photographs document
transboundary pollution. a) Indian
Ocean haze; b) Chinese dust storm and
Korean fires; c) Indonesia fires in 1997,
and d) Asian dust reaches North America
in Spring 2001.
NASA/GSFC, SeaWiFS
c
ORBIMAGE, NASA/GSFC,
SeaWiFS, April 7, 2000
d
NASA/GSFC, Sci. Vis. Studio
ORBIMAGE, NASA/GSFC,
SeaWiFS, April 15, 2001
The ABC Modeling Program
This program will consist of key components currently including:
• The US National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model which is a global
coupled ocean-atmosphere model.
• An Asia-Pacific regional climate model to complement our global climate modeling work. While the
NCAR global climate model (GCM) covers the entire globe, its horizontal resolution is limited by the
computing resources. Thus in a focused area such as the Asia Pacific region, we will use several regional
models available to us in the US, in addition to the GCM, to simulate the monsoon hydrological cycle and
the aerosol effect.
• Chemistry transport model will be run by our European colleagues to simulate transport of chemical
species and ozone; while an aerosol transport model developed jointly by NCAR and C4 will simulate
aerosol transport.
• Various sophisticated agriculture models developed by the Indian Agriculture Research Institute (Wheat
Growth Simulator and Crop Estimation through Resource and Environmental Synthesis) will be used in
Project ABC - Page 11
conjunction with the above climate models and C4’s Monte Carlo Aerosol Cloud Radiation Model (MACR)
to evaluate impacts on agriculture.
The goal for this modeling work is to create the Asia-Pacific Regional Climate Model (APRCM) to be
available to regional researchers and students. Toward this goal, we will also initiate contact with the
Frontier Research System for Global Change in Tokyo, Japan. APRCM will in turn be the first step toward
the eventual establishment of an Asia-Pacific Climate Modeling Center (APCMC) to be located in a suitable
location, such as Bangkok or Singapore.
The ABC Impact Assessment Program
• Climate Impact
A preliminary modeling assessment of the South Asian haze induced climate change was recently made by
C4 scientists using the National Center for Atmospheric Research-Community Climate Model Version-3 (CCM3).
Preliminary findings (Chung et al.2001; Kiehl et al., 2001) show a cooling of the land surface, and warming
of the atmosphere during the dry monsoon season. These temperature change features lead to the stabilization
of boundary layer that results in a reduction of evaporation and sensible heat flux from the land. The
rainfall disruption is surprisingly large, and is characterized mainly by increased precipitation over Bay of
Bengal and drying of areas northwest of India. The figure (below) displays the surface temperature and
Regional climate change, as simulated by NCAR/CCM3. Upper panels display the land surface
temperature variation (blue = cooling; yellow = warming). Lower panels show percentage precipitation
change (green = wetting; red = drying). CCM3 was forced with the climatological seasonal cycle of
observed SSTs. In the experiment being shown here, the ratio, “R”, of the surface aerosol forcing to the
atmosphere forcing is effectively -0.9 (“Rª-0.9” experiment).
Page 12 - Project ABC
rainfall rate changes. There exists a ‘positive feedback’ between the aerosol forcing and deep convective
precipitation, which greatly amplifies the initial dynamical response. The enhancement of the area-mean
precipitation is as much as 20% over the haze area, and dries out the regions outside of the haze, notably
Indonesia and the areas northwest of India (see figure, next page). Global mean precipitation decreases by 1%,
consistent with a suppression of evaporation over the haze area.
Ultimately, more reliable estimates of the aerosol effect on climate call for more realistically designed forcing
and less deficient climate models. Nevertheless, Chung et al. and Kiehl et al.’s studies implicate a large
extent of the regional climate change. Regarding the domain of influence, the climatic effect may not
necessarily be confined to the Indian sector. Through the modification of the Indian Walker circulation,
the Pacific variability, including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), can also be impacted. The INDOEX
aerosol climate forcing has significant implications to global climate, as it perturbs troposphere-wide
temperature on a large spatial scale. The major inference from these modeling studies is that effects of
manmade aerosols on regional climate can be quite large.
We propose to carry out detailed long term model studies for Project ABC, incorporating data collected in
the region. Eventually, knowledge gained from these simulations will help design the APRCM.
• Agriculture Impact
Rice and wheat, main food staples throughout Asia-Pacific, are critical for the well-being of the region’s
3.6 thousand million people. Although grain production has increased dramatically since the 1960’s,
yields may not continue to rise to help nourish the expanding population. Agricultural production is
confronting growing constraints, such as decreased arable land quality and availability, and greater
uncertainties due to aerosol impacts on climate, including: decreased surface radiation (Satheesh and
Ramananthan, 2000) and potential impacts on the hydrological cycle, such as abbreviated or shifted monsoon
cycles, more intense storms and flooding, and prolonged droughts.
The fine balance in the region’s yearly grain production and world-wide pattern of grain imports could be
easily impacted by climate change influenced by aerosols. When Asia produced 1,025.8 Mt of cereal
(533.5 Mt rice, 261.7 Mt wheat) in 1999, only Thailand and Vietnam had 100% grain self-sufficiency
(IPCC, 2001; FAO, 1999). Even in good harvest years, most countries in Asia expect to import cereals
(IPCC, 2001; USDA, 1999) and all the countries are susceptible to crop losses due to potential adverse
impacts of aerosols on climate. Regional crop models, coupled with in-situ field data, could help predict
with greater confidence potential impacts on yield and growing conditions to promote better decision
making for sustainable agriculture development and regional food security.
While the effect of rising levels of carbon dioxide on agricultural productivity has received significant
attention in the past (e.g., Aggarwal and Kalra, 1994; Matthews et al., 1995), the role of manmade aerosols
in regulating crop yields in the Indo-Asia-Pacific region is yet to be addressed in detail. Although global
warming could increase surface temperatures and extend growing seasons to enhance yield (IPCC, 2001;
Rosenzweig and Hillel, 1998), aerosols could effectively shorten growing seasons by reducing solar energy
reaching the Earth’s surface.
As indicated by Chameides et al., 1999 and the UNEP Assessment Report, reduction of solar energy at the
Earth’s surface by aerosols may have a significant effect on crop yields. Project ABC will conduct numerical
experiments with a variety of highly sophisticated mathematical crop models using different scenarios with
respect to water and nutrient intakes to build statistics of crop (initially rice, wheat and sugarcane) response
Project ABC - Page 13
to atmospheric pollution. Output from the crop models will be used to quantify potential yields under
different climate conditions. Modeling will be used in combination with in-situ and satellite observations
to monitor crop health and water stress. The results will facilitate better strategies to help optimize resources,
such as water and land, given complex feedback effects between atmospheric pollution and food production
in the Asia-Pacific region in the context of rapidly increasing fossil fuel emissions on top of biomass burning.
Initial Agriculture Assessment in India
In order to link the effects of haze on surface radiation, regional monsoon winds and precipitation with
agriculture, we plan to collaborate with the Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) using dynamic
crop models for rice, wheat and sugarcane:
• Crop Estimation through Resource and Environment Synthesis (CERES) - Rice model simulates
the effects of weather, soil, water, cultivar, and nitrogen dynamics in the soil and the crop to predict
rice growth and yield.
• Wheat Growth Simulator (WTGROWS) evaluates the effects of climatological variables (surface
irradiance, temperature, etc.), genotype, agronomic management, water availability, and nitrogen
use on crop growth and productivity of winter wheat in tropical and subtropical environments
(Aggarwal and Kalra, 1994).
• CANEGRO module of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT)
program shell developed by the organizers of International Benchmark Sites Network for
Agrotechnology Transfer (IBSNAT) project simulates sugarcane growth and yield.
Model inputs include time series of a) surface radiative fluxes generated using C4’s MACR, b) NCAR’s
Aerosol Assimilation Model, and c) aerosol induced changes in regional rainfall and temperature patterns
generated using the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM).
Wheat
Wheat is grown during the winter (November to
April) in the Indo-Gangetic alluvial plains and
central India, mainly Madhya Pradesh (the study
might be even more relevant to Pakistan and
Afghanistan). WTGROWS run for different wheat
growing areas under adequate irrigation, indicated
that the presence of aerosols during INDOEX may have
impacted wheat yields by 1.7 - 5.5%.
Sugarcane
One of the most important cash crops in India,
sugarcane covers around 4.1 million hectares,
mainly in the Indo-Gangetic alluvial plains and
southern India. Solar radiation reduction in the
tilling and grand growth phase can cause
considerable damage to final yield. Such findings
Page 14 - Project ABC
Percent Loss of Rice Yield
Rice
The most important cereal crop in India, rice occupies nearly 35% of the total area under cultivation and
contributes more than 40% of India’s total food grain. It is mainly grown in the rainy summer and requires
four months until harvest, enabling several crops each year. The CERES - Rice model run for two locations
in India with two sowing times suggested that the presence of pollution aerosols could reduce rice yields by
2-8%. The effect was more pronounced for the second date of sowing.
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
Sowing Date
(Julian Day)
Biomass
Paddy Yield
305
330
Hyderabad, India
305
330
Coimbatore, India
Potential Loss in Rice Yield Due to Aerosol Impact.
(Project ABC Assessment Report, 2001.)
are observed in Poplar/sugarcane plantations where shade can decrease sugarcane yield by 10%. Using the
CANEGRO module of DSSAT which incorporates agronomic management practices, sugarcane yield
declined by approximately 1.5% because of aerosol impacts during important stages of growth.
Crop Assessment for the Entire Asia-Pacific Region
In the long-term, the ABC agriculture program will gradually expand to include other countries in the
region, including China, Pakistan and particularly Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam, the region’s main rice
producers. Of particular interest, to complement and validate modeling studies, strategic in-situ observations
will be gathered to provide critical data input for the models. Agriculture models will continue to use
climate data generated by the climate side of this program.
In addition to joint research with IARI, we will establish scientific collaboration with the Consultative Group on
International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), the International Rice Research Institute (IRRI) in the Philippines;
and the International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT) to expand agricultural
research to the entire Indo-Asia-Pacific region. Possible benefits include, for example, advances with IRRI to
identify genetic strains that take advantage of increased CO2 but tolerate air pollution and drought. Also,
additional insights from regional crop models on the impacts of aerosols on agriculture could help agronomists
and policymakers with economic planning (i.e. type of crop, timing of planting) to optimize yield.
• Public Health Impact
Recent studies in the US by the Health Effects Institute (HEI) in Cambridge, Massachusetts, found that
death rate in the 90 largest US cities rise on average 0.5% with each 10 micrograms per cubic meter
increase in PM10 loadings (aerosols less than 10 micrometers in diameter). The situation in urban areas of
the developing regions could be worse. Several of the world’s most polluted cities are found in South Asia:
Calcutta, Delhi, Mumbai, Karachi, and Dhaka are examples of megacities that produce unacceptably high
emissions of health endangering gaseous and particulate matter. SPM values are several times higher than
those prescribed by National Air
Quality standards: for the Delhi
annual average for 1997 was 370
mg/m3, 2.5 times larger than the
standard value for the residential
area. Though the values of SO2 and
NO x generally remained within
prescribed limits of 60-80 mg/m3,
there have been sharp increases in
recent years: SO2 by 109% from
1989 to 1996 and NOx by 82%
(White Paper on Pollution in Delhi,
2000).
There is distinct association between
ambient air pollution and
respiratory diseases, although
estimates of mortality vary. Risk
estimates for acute respiratory
infections, chronic obstructive
pulmonary disease and lung cancer,
Air Quality in 11 Megacities (WHO and UNEP, 1992; UNEP, 1999).
as well as tuberculosis and asthma
(with less confidence) are available.
Project ABC - Page 15
Studies in India in a number of locations (Delhi, Calcutta, Mumbai, Lucknow) also point to serious hazards
from both indoor and outdoor pollution, although there are inherent uncertainties reflecting differences in
pollution mixtures, gender, income levels and occupational patterns.
Selected Causes of Death in China
Cause
Air-pollution-related
lung and heart disease
Smoking-related lung disease,
heart disease, and stroke
Stroke from hypertension
Infectious diseases,
except pneumonia
Suicide
Liver cancer from hepatitis,
microcystin, and aflatoxin
Falls and drowing
Motor vehicle accidents
Homicide
Fires and burns
Coal mining accidents
All causes, 1995
Approximate number
per year, 1990-1995
1,100,000
800,000
600,000
500,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
135,000
50,000
24,000
5,000
8,000,000
(Environmental Science & Technology, American
Chemical Society; Hood and Sweet, 1999.)
Study of 20 US Cities, 1987-1994: 0.5% Increase in Deaths
from All Causes for Each Increase in PM10 of 10 µg/m3.
Posterior distributions of the overall relative rate of increase
in death from all causes for each increase in the PM10 level of
10 µg/m3, before and after adjustment for the levels of O3,
NO2, SO2 and CO. Values in parentheses are the posterior
probabilities that the overall effects are greater than zero. PM10
denotes particulate matter that is less than 10 µm in
aerodynamic diameter (Samet et al., 2000).
In rural Asia, due to burning of unprocessed solid biomass for cooking and heating, indoor air pollution
is a major health issue. A study of the East West Center in Hawaii (Smith, 2000) estimates that about half
a million women and children 5 years or younger in India die yearly due to indoor air pollution. A significant fraction of
the air pollution, especially in rural areas, originated from indoor biomass burning.
In Project ABC, epidemiologists will be encouraged to work with pathologists in the field to make case
studies of deaths caused by atmospheric pollution. Asian institutions, through UNEP RRC.AP and perhaps
the World Health Organization (WHO), will be paired with those in the US, Europe and Japan for
comparative studies and exchange programs. Physical and chemical property data on the haze, its seasonal
spatial coverage and pollution events, will be used as environmental background for these studies.
• Economic Impacts and Policy Implications
Throughout the life span of the Project ABC, in parallel with the research programs, UNEP RRC.AP will
coordinate with economists in the US, Europe, Asia and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to provide
yearly assessments of economic impacts, taking into consideration the results of the climate, agriculture
and public health impact studies, to include societal cost vs. benefits and trade-offs among policies and
options. Examples are provided in the following tables.
Page 16 - Project ABC
Potential Health Benefits from Better Emission Controls
Best Estimates,
Fewer Cases/Year
Mortality
Emergency Room Visits (cardiovascular and respiratory)
Asthma Attacks
300
2,000
10,000
Net Grain Exports (Mt)
Health Outcome
150
100
1961
1971
1981
1998
50
0
-50
In a region covering Wisconsin, Illinois, Michigan and Indiana that is
home to 33 million people, nine old coal-fired power plants upwind of
Chicago, Illinois contribute about 0.6 µg/m3 to the region’s annual average
PM2.5 concentration of 15-20 µg/m3. Above benefits could be realized if
tighter regulations are adopted to reduce about 75% of emissions. (Levy
and Spengler, 2000.)
CHINA: UNDP Urges Government to Reduce Smog Emissions
UNWire, November 26, 2001
http://www.unwire.org/
The U.N. Development Program issued a report today saying that
China’s air pollution is among the worst in the world and calling on the
Chinese government to adopt strict economic measures to curb smog
emissions in urban areas.
“China’s major cities have been characterized by some of the highest
levels of air pollution in the world, often with pollutant concentrations at
multiples of the levels considered safe for human health and the environment,” the report says. The study, produced in cooperation with Chinese institutes, also mentions the need for “market-oriented solutions
based on the rule of law.”
The UNDP based its recommendations on six agency-sponsored air
pollution projects across China that aimed to reduce acid rain from coal
burning and industrial and vehicle pollution. One of these projects in the
southern province of Guizhou found that increasing energy efficiency
and burning cleaner coal could reduce acid rain by as much as 30 percent.
Acid rain in Guizhou is considered to be among the worst in the world,
posing both a health hazard and an environmental risk by decreasing soil
fertility.
China’s own annual environmental report, which was published earlier this year, said that even though the country has made some strides in
decreasing pollution, environmental degradation nationwide continues
to be an extremely serious problem (Agence France-Presse, Nov. 26).
© 2001 by National Journal Group Inc., 1501 M St., N.W., Washington, DC 20005.
Africa
Asia
Oceania
North and
Central
South Europe
Food Security. Worldwide pattern of production and
export of grain. Even in a good harvest year, Asia-Pacific
still has to import a significant quantity (IPCC, 2001)
China: Possible Annual Avoided Deaths by 2020
Policy Implications between Economic and Environmental Benefits
Scenario
Sector
Low Range
Mid Range
Efficiency
High Range
Power
Household
1,500
62,000
4,400
150,000
13,000
460,000
Fuel substitution
least-cost GWP
Power
Household
1,700
47,000
4,900
120,000
15,000
360,000
Fuel substitution
least-cost dose
Power
Household
1,800
70,000
5,200
180,000
16,000
530,000
The above scenarios are based on an estimated mortality/population in
China in 2020: 14 million/1470 million. Numbers of avoided deaths are
estimated for the three scenarios for both the power sector and household sector,
relative to the business-as-usual (BAU) case by 2020:
• Efficiency = improved combustion to reduce GHG and particulates by 15%
of BAU.
• Fuel substitution, least-cost per unit of Global Warming Potential (GWP) =
cheapest substitutes are successively taken until exhausted, to achieve GHG target.
• Fuel substitution, least-cost dose = cheapest substitutes are successively taken
until exhausted to achieve smallest exposure to air pollution
The wide range of the results shows urgent need to characterize relationship between
indoor and outdoor emissions and exposures; and to prioritize the efficiency of or replacing
solid and biomass fuels. Also, benefits from the electric power sector currently seem not
to be sufficient to offset the incremental cost of introducing GHG and particulate strategies.
(Wang and Smith, 1999).
Project ABC - Page 17
References
Aggarwal, P.K., and N. Kalra (Editors). Simulating the effect of climatic factors, genotype and management on
productivity of wheat in India. Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India, 1994.
Chameides, W.L., H. Yu, S.C. Liu, M. Bergin, X. Zhou, L. Mearns, G. Wang, C.S. Kiang, R.D. Saylor, C. Lio, Y. Huang, A.
Steiner, and F. Giorgi, Case study of the effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional haze on agriculture: An
opportunity to enhance crop yields in China through emission controls? Proceedings of the National Academy of
6, 13,626-13,633, 1999.
Sciences, 9 6
Chung C.E., V. Ramanathan, and J.T. Kiehl. Effects of the South-Asian absorbing haze on the monsoon and surfaceair heat exchange, Submitted, J. Climate, 2001.
FAO, 1999. Production Yearbook 1999. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.
Hood, M. and W. Sweet. Energy Policy and Politics in China. IEEE Spectrum, November 1999, 34-47.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment. McCarthy, J.J., O.F. Canziani, N.A. Leary, D.J. Dokken, and
K.S. White (Editors). Cambridge University Press, 2001, 1032 pp.
Kiehl, J.T., J.J. Hack and V. Ramanathan. Response of a coupled climate model to the presence of absorbing
aerosols. To be submitted, J. Geophys. Res., 2001.
Lelieveld, J., P.J. Crutzen, V. Ramanathan, M.O. Andreae, C.A.M. Brenninkmeijer, T. Campos, G.R. Cass, R.R. Dickerson,
H. Fischer, J.A. de Gouw, A. Hansel, A. Jefferson, D. Kley, A.T.J. de Laat, S. Lal, M.G. Lawrence, J.M. Lobert, O.
Mayol-Bracero, A.P. Mitra, T. Novakov, S.J. Oltmans, K.A. Prather, T. Reiner, H. Rodhe, H.A. Scheeren, D. Sikka
and J. Williams. The Indian Ocean Experiment: Widespread Air Pollution from South and Southeast Asia. Science, 291(5506): 1031-1036, February 9, 2001.
Levy, J. and J. Spengler. Harvard Center for Risk Analysis. Vol. 9 . 2
2, April 2000.
Matthews, M.J., D. Bachelet Kropff and H.H. Van Laar (Editors). Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice
Production in Asia. CAB International, Wallingford, Oxon, United Kingdom, in association with the International
Rice Research Institute, 1995, 289 pp.
Project ABC Assessment Report. The South Asian Brown Cloud: Climate and Other Environmental Impacts, A
UNEP Assessment Report Based on Findings from the Indian Ocean Experiment . First draft, submitted to
UNEP on November 15, 2001.
Ramanathan, V., P. J. Crutzen, J. Lelieveld, A. P. Mitra, D. Althausen, J. Anderson, M.O. Andreae, W. Cantrell, G. R.
Cass, C. E. Chung, A. D. Clarke, J. A. Coakley, W. D. Collins, W.C. Conant, F. Dulac, J. Heintzenberg, A. J.
Heymsfield, B. Holben, S. Howell, J. Hudson, A. Jayaraman, J. T. Kiehl, T.N. Krishnamurti, D. Lubin, G. McFarquhar,
T. Novakov, J. A. Ogren, I. A. Podgorny, K. Prather, K. Priestley, J. M. Prospero, P. K. Quinn, K. Rajeev, P. Rasch,
S. Rupert, R. Sadourny, S. K. Satheesh, G. E. Shaw, P. Sheridan and F. P. J. Valero. The Indian Ocean Experiment:
An Integrated Analysis of the Climate Forcing and Effects of the Great Indo-Asian Haze. In press, J. Geophys.
Res., 2001.
Rosenzweig, C. and D. Hillel. Climate Change and the Global Harvest: Potential Impacts of the Greenhouse Effect on
Agriculture. Oxford University Press, Oxford, United Kingdom, 1998, 324 pp.
Samet, J.M., F. Dominici, F.C. Curriero, I. Coursac, and S.L. Zeger. Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 US
3(24): 1742-1749.
Cities, 1987-1994. New England Journal of Medicine, December 14, 2000, 3 4 3
Satheesh, S.K and V. Ramanathan. Large differences in tropical aerosol forcing at the top of the atmosphere and
Earth’s surface. Nature, 4 0 5 (6782):60-63, May 4, 2000.
Smith, K.R. National burden of disease in India from indoor air pollution. Proceedings of the National Academy of
7(24), 13286-13293.
Sciences, November 21, 2000, 9 7
United Nations Environment Programme. Global Environment Outlook 2000, UNEP’s Millennium Report on the Environment. Earthscan Publications Ltd., United Kingdom, 1999, 398 pp.
USDA, 1999: Production, Supply, and Distribution Database. Available online at http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/
data-sets/international/.
Wang, R. and K.R. Smith. Secondary benefits of greenhouse gas control: Health impacts in China. Environ. Sci.
Technol., 3 3
3, 3056-3061, 1999.
White Paper on Pollution in Delhi, 2000.
WHO and UNEP. Urban Air Pollution in Megacities of the World. Blackwell, Oxford, United Kingdom, 1992.
Page 18 - Project ABC
ATTACHMENT 1 - Potential Collaborating Institutions
P r o j e c t As i a n Br o w n Cl o u d
A collaboration between the Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate
and the UNEP Regional Resource Center for Asia and the Pacific
V. Ramanathan1 and P.J. Crutzen1,2
1
Coordinator: H.V. Nguyen
1. Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego (UCSD), La Jolla, California, USA
2. Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany
Potential Collaborating Institutions:
Florida State University, Tallahassee
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta
Indian Agriculture Research Institute, New Delhi
Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu
Institute of Earth Sciences, Academia Sinica, Taipei
Institute for Global Change Research, Yokohama
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Paris
Max-Planck Institute for Chemistry, Mainz
Ministry of Home Affairs, Housing and Environment, Republic of Maldives
National Agricultural Research Centre, Islamabad, Pakistan
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder
National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi
Patel Chest Institute, New Delhi
Peking University, Beijing
Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad
School of Medicine, University of California, San Diego
School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, UCSD
State Environmental Protection Agency, China
State Science and Technology Commission, China
Stockholm University, Stockholm
SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training (START)
United Nations Environmental Programme, Regional Resource Center for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok
University of Maryland, College Park
University of Miami, Miami
University of Seoul, Seoul
University of Tokyo
Project ABC - Page 19
Term
Page 20 - Project ABC
2001)
40
50
0
20
TOTAL PROPOSED REQUEST*
5 0 1710
*additional Direct and Indirect Cost to partner universities are not included in the above proposed budget
Quantification of pollution damages
Visitor and Exchange Program
Impact Assessment
Economics Impacts
Public Health
Statistical Studies
Visitor and Exchange Program
Climate-Health Integration
Impact Assessment
400
200
30
250
100
200
50
50
20
60
150
30
40
0
20
50
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1885
80
50
20
9
6
7
2
4
6
7
2
100
50
50
150
250
300
80
70
20
80
155
Page 1 of 2
policy-related studies coordinated by UNEP
between Asia/US/Europe
Yearly Report
epidemological studies for Asian mega cities
in conjunction with the above studies
initiation of first climate-health model
Yearly Report
initiate agriculture and climate model runs
between Asia/US/Europe
training provided to A-P scientists/students
Yearly Report
training provided at the surface observatories
between Asia/US/Europe
Yearly Report
local personnel to operate the sites
costs includes construction and instruments
solar energy will be the main power source
to purchase radiation calibration instruments
coordinator, editor, travels, teleconference
already funded. Assessment Report due by Aug 31
YEAR 1
YEAR 2
YEAR 3
2001
2002
2003
Jan-Sep O-N-D J - F - M A - M - J J - A - S O-N-D J - F - M A - M - J J - A - S O-N-D
Numerical Experiments
Visitor and Exchange Program
Climate-Agriculture Integration
Impact Assessment
Agriculture Program
Construct+Equipt Hanimaadhoo, Maldives
Solar Energy Program
Calibration Program
Construct+Equipt station in Bidur, Nepal
Construct+Equipt station in Bay of Bengal
Solar Energy (Bidur and BOBengal)
Data Analyses and Training
Visitor and Exchange Program
Transboundary Transport Assessement
Regional Postdocs and Students
Surface Observation Program
Short Term (Year
Project Coordination
1-2)
(Jan-Aug
Impact Assessment I
Immediate
(in thousands US$)
Proposed Timelines and Estimated Budget, October 2001-September 2003
ATTACHMENT 2 - Proposed Timelines and Estimated Budget
Project ABC - Page 21
200
20
50
150
40
200
60
40
Statistical Studies
Visitor and Exchange Program
Climate-Health Integration
Field Studies
Impact Assessment
Quantification of pollution damages
Visitor and Exchange Program
Impact Assessment
50
50
200
50
TOTAL PROPOSED REQUEST*
3310
*additional direct and indirect cost to partner universities are not included
Student/Scientist Exchange Program
Planning for Asia-Pacific Experiment
Development and Testing
Visitor and Exchange Program
Integrated Computer Model for Asia-Pacific Region
Development and Testing
Operations and Training
Data Access System
Economics Impacts
Public Health
70
0
50
50
20
60
150
40
Numerical Experiments
Expansion to Rice Producing Countries
Visitor and Exchange Program
Climate-Agriculture Integration
Field Studies
Impact Assessment
Agriculture Program
100
60
300
200
100
250
60
100
70
100
60
200
Data Collection &Analyses
Operations and Maintenance
New Observatory in Pac Rim country 1
New Observatory in Pac Rim country 2
New Observatory in Pac Rim country 3
Solar Energy Program
Operations and Maintenance
Data Analyses, Calibration and Training
Visitor and Exchange Program
Field Studies
Transboundary Transport Assessement
Regional Postdocs and Students
Surface Observation Program
3365
50
50
200
50
70
0
200
60
40
200
40
50
150
40
50
100
30
60
150
60
100
60
0
100
200
250
60
100
150
200
80
250
3420
50
50
200
50
10
80
200
60
40
200
50
50
150
40
50
100
30
60
150
80
100
60
0
0
0
250
60
100
280
300
100
300
Page 2 of 2
Inst. for Global Sustainability, exchange program
To fund Asia-Pacific participants. The
field program would start in the 6th year
integration of climate-agriculture-health
between Asia/US/Europe
integration of surface, satellite and model
testing with regional/national resources
policy-related studies coordinated by UNEP
between Asia/US/Europe
Yearly Report
expansion to other mega cities in Asia
between Asia/US/Europe
integration of health-climate models
to collect in-situ pathological data
Yearly Report
using climate data in agri. models
Indonesia, Thailand and Viet-Nam
between Asia/US/Europe
integration of climate and agr. models
to collect in-situ data to verify models
Yearly Report
for the existing observatories
ops expenses, existing observatories
construction + instruments
construction + instruments
construction + instruments
solar energy set up for new stations
operations expenses
Asia/US/Europe or at the observatories
between Asia/US/Europe
dry monsoon experiments
Yearly Report
local personnel to operate the sites
YEAR 3
YEAR 4
YEAR 5
YEAR 6
2003
2004
2005
2006
O-N-D J - F - M A - M - J J - A - S O-N-D J - F - M A - M - J J - A - S O-N-D J - F - M A - M - J J - A - S O-N-D
Long Term Program (Year 3-5 and beyond)
Project Coordination
160
165
170
coordinator, editor, travels, teleconference
(in thousands US$)
Proposed Timelines and Estimated Budget, October 2003-September 2006 and Beyond
Proposed Timelines and Estimated Budget (Continued)
ATTACHMENT 3 - The Indian Ocean Experiment
The Indian Ocean Experiment
(INDOEX), an international field
experiment, has been collecting data
since 1996, featuring an intensive
field campaign conducted in
Spring 1999. For details, see
http://www-indoex.ucsd.edu.
Participating Institutions
Austria
Universität Innsbruck
Canada
York University, Toronto
Europe
Airborne Platform for Earth Observation
(Geophysica, Falcon)
European Organisation for the Exploitation of
Meteorological Satellites (Meteosat-5)
France
Laboratoire d’Optique Atmosphérique
Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique du CNRS
Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique,
Université Blaise Pascal
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de
l’Environnement, CEA-CNRS
Laboratoire Interuniversitaire des Systèmes
Atmosphériques
Service d’Aéronomie
Germany
Forschungszentrum Jülich
GKSS-Forschungszentrum Geesthacht
Institut für Troposphärenforschung
Max Planck Institut für Chemie
Max Planck Institut für Kernphysik
Max Planck Institut für Meteorologie
Meteorologisches Institut der Universität Hamburg
Universität Bremen
India
Antarctic Study Centre, Vasco-da-Gama
Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore
Indian Institute of Technology, New Delhi
Page 22 - Project ABC
Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune
Indian Meteorological Department, New Delhi
Indian Space Research Organization, Bangalore
National Centre for Medium Range Weather
Forecasting, New Delhi
National Institute of Oceanography, Goa
National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi
Physical Research Laboratory, Ahmedabad
Space Applications Centre, Ahmedabad
Space Physics Laboratory, Thiruvananthapuram
Israel
Tel-Aviv University
La Réunion
Université de La Réunion
Mauritius
Department of Meteorological Services, Mauritius
University of Mauritius, Reduit
Maldives
Department of Meteorology, Maldives
Ministry of Home Affairs, Housing and Environment
Netherlands
Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut
Technische Universiteit Delft
Universiteit Utrecht
South Africa
University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg
Sweden
Meteorologiska Institutionen, Stockholms Universitet
United Kingdom
Imperial College, London
United States
Center for Clouds, Chemistry and Climate
Arizona State University, Tempe
Atmospheric Research Laboratory
Colorado University, Boulder
Desert Research Institute
Florida State University, Tallahassee
NASA - Goddard Space Flight Center
National Center for Atmospheric Research
NOAA - Atlantic Oceanographic and
Meteorological Laboratory
NOAA - Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Lab
NOAA - Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
North Carolina State University, Raleigh
Oregon State University, Corvallis
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
Scripps Institution of Oceanography
SeaSpace Corporation
University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
University of Alaska, Fairbanks
University of California, Irvine
University of California, Riverside
University of California, San Diego
University of Hawaii, Manoa
University of Maryland, College Park
University of Miami
University of Washington, Seattle
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