...

Presentation

by user

on
Category:

science

24

views

Report

Comments

Transcript

Presentation
Third International Seville Conference on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA):
Impacts and implications for policy and decision-making
16th- 17th October 2008
Foresight Development and
Implementation Effectiveness:
Lessons from the Brazilian Experience
Antônio Luís Aulicino
IDS – Institute for Sustainable Development
[email protected]
Isak Kruglianskas
School of Economics, Business
Administration and Accounting – FEA - USP
[email protected]
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Presentation
1. Introduction / Objective
2. Theoretical Background
3. Methodology
4. Results and policy impact/implications
5. Conclusions and recommendations
6. Bibligraphical References
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Introduction
Objective
The objective is to show where Brazil stands in the preparation of
foresight studies and to look at the Brazilian Program of Industrial
Technological Prospective’ case study, coordinated by the DIT in
Portuguese (STI) and the Department of Production Development
(DPD) of the Brazilian MDIFT.
To identify how the process for preparing a foresight study in Brazil
was performed and how the effectiveness of its implementation
influenced the formulation of public policies.
How the foresight studies Brazilian was prepared and the role played
by the stakeholders in the process.
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Introduction / Theoretical Background
Foresight
Retrospective
Present
Strategic Vision of future
• Networks
• Interative and Participative
Approaches
• Make decisions
• Public Policies
MARTIN (2001)
FOREN (2001)
GAVIGAN and SCAPOLO (1999)
CHILCOTE (1998
Possible Futures
Past
Systematic Studies
Stakeholders
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Introduction / Theoretical Background
The situation of foresight studies in Brazil
Not Systematic Studies Some stakeholders
Executive
Government
Past
No Strategic Vision of Future Together
Retrospective
Web Delphi
Individual
MCT (2003);
Projeto Tendências (2003);
CGEE (2004); MDIC (2005);
Brasil 3 tempos (2007)
• Not network
• Not Interative and Participative
Approaches
• Government make decisions
Possible Futures
Specialist
Team or Indvidual
?
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Methodology (1/3)
Research Model
AULICINO
(2006), with
participation of
Atilla Havas
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Methodology (2/3)
Case Study chosen
• The Brazilian Program of Industrial Technological Prospective, was
Brazilian in scope and its objective was to support public policies for
science, technology and innovation, considering four foresight studies in
sectors covering the Brazilian territory.
• This case study is divided into four other case studies, which are
prospective studies of productive chains:
- transformed plastics;
- civil construction;
- textiles and clothes manufacturing; and
- furniture and wood.
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Methodology (3/3)
Case Study: Brazilian Program of
Industrial Technological Prospective
• Primary data for this research were collected via in-depth interviews.
• Secondary data were collected from documents provided by the
Coordinator of the Brazilian Program and the Chief of Office of the Ministry
(DIT/MDIFT), who supplied the following information:
• the result of the meetings with UNIDO;
• the contract between the entities;
• the drafts of the meetings of the Prospective Committee;
• the discussions about the productive chains and the topics;
• the planning of the training course for the teams of the four Productive Chains
that prepared the prospective studies;
• the evaluations and various presentations of the teams;
• the development of each prospective study; and
• the difficulties and all the reports prepared by the teams in all phases of the
Program.
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Results and policy impact/implications (1/3)
Future studies of the Brazilian Program
of Industrial Technological Prospective
• Provided a good national experience involving four productive chains;
• Involved the people in these productive chains; and
• Presented a challenge for those responsible to elaborate future studies
using experts in the productive chains chosen who were unfamiliar with the
process of preparing prospective studies.
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Results and policy impact/implications (2/3)
Future studies of the Brazilian Program
of Industrial Technological Prospective
• The positive outcomes, in sum, were:
– the results of the foresight study of the Civil Construction Production Chain,
which indirectly contributed to the preparation of Resolution 3177/2004 of the
Central Bank of Brazil and of Law 10931/2004;
– the development of the Seminar “Corporate Strategies, Brazilian Industrial Policy
and New Approaches to Promoting Competitiveness” for enterprises, held at the
São Paulo State Federation of Industries (FIESP), mainly for decision-makers;
and
– the importance ascribed to its foresight study by the Competitiveness Forum of
the Production Chain of Transforming Plastic Goods, which used the results of
the studies as a basis for forecast the demand in that sector.
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Results and policy impact/implications (3/3)
Future studies of the Brazilian Program
of Industrial Technological Prospective
Some of the circumstances that possibly impaired the results of the
Program’s foresight studies, as an instrument to help improve the
development process of Brazil’s foresight studies, were:
• the change of focus, as from the second stage, in the elaboration of the foresight
studies of the Competitiveness Forums’ Production Chains as compared to the
Action Plan prepared in the first stage;
• the failure to take sustainable development into account in the objectives of these
studies;
• the inability to establish networks, which was one of the concerns of the Action Plan
; and
• the failure of the prospective studies to:
- properly deal with the issues of continuity in the process of implementing these
results;
- achieve absorption of the foresight concept by the business sector; and
- be included in the formulation of public policies for the Production Chains studied.
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Conclusions and recommendations (1/3)
Conclusions
• Both in the Brazilian Program of Industrial Technological Foresight and in the
foresight studies of each Production Chain, the way in which their development was
conducted did not produce the desired effects; in other words, unlike what happens in
the European Union and in its countries, these studies did not become a tool for the
formulation of public policy concerning science, technology and innovation.
• One should highlight, however, that the Civil Construction Production Chain foresight
study indirectly helped to generate a resolution and a law.
• The Brazilian government had difficulty using the foresight studies’ results to
formulate public policies, mainly because it was difficult to get the stakeholders
involved during the development of the studies. It requires: spending a lot of time,
systematic continuity, and persistence, as the European Union has shown in its
foresight studies of the last few years.
• One must also highlight that the foresight studies did not take into account
sustainable development equally in terms of its economic, social and environmental
dimensions.
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Conclusions and recommendations (2/3)
Recommendations: Participative Foresight
As a consequence of the results, we recommended that the Foresight Study
preparation process be participative and involve the stakeholders, in order to improve
the conception and performance of the process in order to get better results, capable of
truly providing support for public policies.
Main User
Others
Demographic
Politic
Thecnology
Cultural
DIMENSIONS
Environment
Social
Econômic
Steering Commitee
Theme 1
Theme 2
Theme 3
. . .
Theme N
Phases:
Pre-foresight
Principal Foresight
Post-foresight
Avaliação dos Resultados dos Estudos Foresight
Immediate
Short-term
Meddle-term
Long-term
Stakeholders
Foresight elaboration process
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Conclusions and recommendations (3/3)
Recommendations: Participative Foresight
Strategic Vision of future
Present
Retrospective
• Networks
• Interative and Participative
Approaches
• Make decisions
• Public Policies
Possible Futures
Past
Systematics Studies
Stakeholders
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Bibligraphical References (1/3)
AULICINO, Antônio L. Tese de Doutorado: Foresight para Políticas de CT&I com Desenvolvimento
Sustentável: Estudo de Caso Brasil. São Paulo. FEA-USP, 2006.
AULICINO, Antônio L.; KRUGLIANSKAS, Isak. A Contribuição de Foresight Tecnológico na Formulação
de Políticas de CT&I do País - Estudo de Caso: MCT-Estudo Prospectar do Brasil. In: SIMPÓSIO DE
GESTÃO DA INOVAÇÃO TECNOLÓGICA, 23, p. 2004, p. Curitiba. Anais/Núcleo de Políticas e Gestão
Tecnológica da Universidade São Paulo. Curitiba, 2004, pp. 2337-2350.
BACEN – BANCO CENTRAL DO BRASIL. RESOLUÇÃO 3177, of 2004. Brasília: BACEN,
08/Mar./2004.
BARRÉ, Remi. Science & Technology foresight as a collective learning process in view of strategic
decision making - overview and interpretative framework. OST (Observatory of Science and Technology)
and CEST (Center for Exploration of Science and Technology). Monitoring Foresight Activities.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION – Joint Research Centre – JRC, European Science and Technology
Observatory – ESTO. Institute for Prospective Technological Studies – IPTS. Seville, pp. 116-138, June
2001.
BRASIL 3 TEMPOS. Brasília, 2007. At http://www.nae.gov.br/brasil3tempos.htm, retrieved on
15/Feb./2007.
CASTRO, A. M. G.; WRIGHT, J.; GOEDERT, W. J. Metodologia para Viabilização do Modelo de
Demanda na Pesquisa Agropecuária. In: Simpósio de Gestão da Inovação Tecnológica, 19, 1996, São
Paulo. Anais. São Paulo, 1996, pp. 169-190.
CBIC – Câmara Brasileira da Indústria da Construção. Lei nº 10.931/200: Um Marco para o Mercado
Imobiliário. Brasília: CBIC, 2004.
CGEE – Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos. Diversos Estudos Prospectivos Brasileiros. Brasília:
CGEE, 2004. At http://www.cgee.org.br/atividades/index.php?a=1, retrieved on 21/Jan./2004.
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Bibligraphical References (2/3)
CHILCOTE, Ronald H. Teorias de Política Comparativa: a busca de um paradigma reconsiderado. São
Paulo: Editora Vozes, 1998.
FOREN - Foresight for Regional Development Network. A Practical Guide to Regional Foresight.
EUROPEAN COMMISSION Research Directorate General – STRATA Programme. Seville, December
2001.
GAVIGAN, James P.; SCAPOLO, Fabiana. A Comparison of National Foresight Exercises. Bromley:
Foresight, v. 1, n. 6, pp. 494-517, December 1999.
GEUS, Arie de. A Empresa Viva: como as organizações podem aprender a prosperar e se perpetuar. 6.
ed. Rio de Janeiro: Editora Campus, 1998.
GODET, Michel. Manuel de Prospectitive Stratégique Tome 2: L’art et la méthode. 2 ed. Paris: Dunod,
2001.
HAVAS, Attila. Evolving Foresight in a Small Transition Economy: The Design, Use and Relevance of
Foresight Methods in Hungary. Journal of Forecasting, v. 22, issue 2-3, pp. 179-201, March/April 2003.
MARCIAL, Elaine C.; GRUMBACH, Raul J. S. Cenários Prospectivos: Como construir um futuro melhor.
1. ed. Rio de Janeiro: Editora FGV, 2002.
MARTIN, Ben R. Technology Foresight in a Rapidly Globalizing Economy. Vienna. Proceedings of the
Regional Conference, April 2001.
MCT – Ministério da Ciência e Tecnologia – Estudo Prospectar: Um Exercício de Prospecção
Tecnológica Nacional. Brasília: Junho 2003. At
http://www.mct.gov.br/cct/prospectar/Relatorio_3/sumario.htm. Retrieved on 14/Nov./2003.
MDIC. Relatórios Finais dos Estudos Prospectivos das Cadeias Produtivas Escolhidas. Brasília: MDIC,
2004. At http://www.desenvolvimento.com.br. Retrieved on 10/May/2005.
NISTEP - National Institute of Science and Technology Policy. Tokyo: 2001. At http://www.nistep.go.jp.
Retrieved on 14/Nov./2003.
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Bibligraphical References (3/3)
OUR COMMON FUTURE. London: World Commission on Environment and Development, 1987.
PLANO DE AÇÃO do Programa Brasileiro de Prospectiva da Tecnologia Industrial. Brasília: Secretaria
de Tecnologia Industrial – STI/MDIC, 2000. Brasília. At
http://www.desenvolvimento.gov.br/arquivo/sti/proAcao/proTecnologica/plaAcao.pdf. Retrieved on
15/Aug./2005.
PROJETO BRASIL 3 TEMPOS. Brasília, 2004. Cadernos NAE – Núcleo de Assuntos Estratégicos da
Presidência da República, no. 1, Jul. 2004. At http://www.nae.gov.br/caderno_br3t.htm. Retrieved on
12/Dec./2006.
PROJETO TENDÊNCIAS. Projeto Tendências Tecnológicas da Agência Nacional do Petróleo (ANP).
Rio de Janeiro, 2003. At http://www.tendencias.int.gov.br/. Retrieved on 10/May/2005.
RINGLAND, Gill. Scenario in Business. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons Ltd., 2002.
SU - Strategic Unit. London, 2003. At http://www.number10.gov.uk/output/page82.asp. Retrieved on
14/Dec./2003.
YIN, Robert. Case Study Research: design and methods. London: Sage, 1994.
Foresight Development and Implementation Effectiveness: Lessons from the Brazilian
Thank you!
Antônio Luís Aulicino
IDS – Institute for Sustainable Development
[email protected]
Isak Kruglianskas
School of Economics, Business Administration and
Accounting – FEA - USP
[email protected]
Fly UP